1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1914

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 9 16:23:11 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 091623
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091622=20
    ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-091815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1914
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1122 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of western/Middle Tennessee...northern
    Mississippi and Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 091622Z - 091815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large
    hail may increase along an effective warm front. A watch is possible
    this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection in western Tennessee has shown some
    signs of increasing intensity along its southwestern flank where
    temperatures continue to rise into the mid 80s F. This is along an
    effective warm front from central Arkansas into northern
    Mississippi. More cellular activity has also been noted in northeast
    Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, and northwest Mississippi within the
    warm advection zone. The main concern for the early afternoon will
    be the potential for tornadoes along the warm front as the boundary
    layer continues to destabilize. Cool temperatures north of the
    boundary mean storms will have to move along it for an appreciable
    threat. Damaging winds also appear possible this afternoon.
    Temperatures into Middle Tennessee do continue to rise, but
    continued influx of cirrus from convection to the west increases
    uncertainty as to how much destabilization will occur. That being
    said, the wind damage threat may remain more isolated along the warm
    front. For more discrete cells, large hail (up to 2 inches) would
    also be possible. Trends will need to be monitored for a possible
    watch this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7T2pHfpZKMhyTZB2TgBm0-v1rAG-pwwRrKFKhzH9C-BiRWhZlsmovozS8IRHRqTEPExUgSqNr= 1TvxrTgq6jC7xR3AeM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 34319031 34799246 35069301 35439313 35679245 35459141
    35499077 35629040 35768947 35678755 35538666 35408633
    34798590 33978658 34018870 34319031=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)