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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1913

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 9 07:38:07 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 090738
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090737=20
    KSZ000-090930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1913
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0237 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of central/southern KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616...

    Valid 090737Z - 090930Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated hail and strong/severe gusts may
    persist overnight.

    DISCUSSION...At 0730 UTC, elevated supercells are gradually evolving
    into a larger-scale storm cluster across west-central KS. Moderate
    elevated buoyancy and effective shear of around 40 kt will continue
    to support a threat of elevated supercells with large hail in the
    short term, though a continued increase in storm coverage and a
    tendency toward more of a cluster or linear mode is expected with
    time as a low-level jet becomes focused into the region.=20

    Some increase in strong/severe gust potential is expected as upscale
    growth occurs and spreads east-southeastward, though this threat may
    tend to remain rather isolated with rather strong low-level
    stability and MLCINH across the region. Additional development is
    possible south and east of the ongoing convection within the
    low-level warm advection regime. This new development could briefly
    pose a large-hail threat before merging into the growing convective
    system.=20

    Some severe threat could spread east-southeast of the current
    boundary of WW 616. Local watch expansion may need to be considered
    based on short-term trends, but with the threat potentially
    remaining rather isolated, new downstream watch issuance is
    currently considered unlikely.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 08/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!58WRgqrnTTqadcApR9HGxGV_chYxTJg_yOfMKGy9JlkHYHtS6gTrM7jaRTuJWMEgboGQj5T8T= yqum6WvpBw4eWqRBMQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

    LAT...LON 38790007 38789788 38719707 38649637 38289593 37879560
    37079575 37159764 37749982 38209998 38790007=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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