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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1909

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 8 20:43:31 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 082043
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082042=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-082215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1909
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0342 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023

    Areas affected...portions of northern Minnesota into extreme
    northwestern Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 082042Z - 082215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe wind/hail may accompany the
    stronger storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Multicell/transient supercells have gradually been
    increasing in number and intensity across northern MN over the past
    few hours. NLDN shows an increase in the frequency of lightning
    flashes and MRMS mosaic radar depicts 30 dBZ echo tops reaching 50
    kft, with corresponding MESH values exceeding 1 inch in diameter for
    some of the strongest storms. RAP forecast soundings and the low 50s
    F observed surface dewpoints suggest that a dry, mixed boundary
    layer is in place. When also considering the modest (i.e. 6.5-7
    C/km) mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy should remain marginal (i.e.
    around 1000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE). Nonetheless, some of the
    stronger updrafts may benefit from the 30+ kts of effective bulk
    (speed-driven) shear and cooler mid-level temperatures to support an
    instance or two of severe hail. Adequate evaporative cooling of
    precipitation within the dry boundary layer may also foster a severe
    gust or two. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW
    issuance is not anticipated.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/08/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!41q_VGmtG-tT6jU1ZCnkrzNcNd85F8E0y0Ror0sFdfBjBej-gLy-Ts1mBT1pECvy_udld3-j0= VjpRC0uCFALfD-1qH8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

    LAT...LON 46949675 47939609 48669516 48789410 48589272 48339139
    48089124 47559107 46969108 46389152 46109195 46039291
    46299500 46949675=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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