ACUS11 KWNS 081241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081240=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-081445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1905
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023

Areas affected...ArkLaMiss vicinity into extreme western AL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612...

Valid 081240Z - 081445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612
continues.

SUMMARY...A localized severe hail/wind threat will continue in the
short term. The damaging-wind threat may increase later this
morning. Eventual downstream watch issuance is possible, though
timing is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Multiple storm clusters are ongoing this morning from
southeast OK into southern AR and western MS. 1-inch hail was
earlier reported in southeast OK, but otherwise storms have largely
been subsevere over the last few hours, with measured gusts
generally in the 30-40 kt range. The environment remains favorable
for organized elevated convection, with MUCAPE in excess of 1500
J/kg and moderate effective shear (as noted in the 12Z JAN/SHV
soundings). However, the tendency for a cluster or linear mode will
limit the hail threat, while the elevated nature of the ongoing
storms will limit damaging-wind potential in the short term.=20

Later this morning, downstream diurnal heating and destabilization
may support increasing damaging-wind potential, if some combination
of the ongoing clusters can persist and become rooted closer to the
surface. The ongoing cluster across southern AR may be best
positioned for later intensification, since there will be greater
time for downstream destabilization, and, with a continued southeast propagation, it will no longer follow in the immediate wake of the
leading cluster across MS. However, the strongest surface pressure
perturbation is noted across west-central AR with the trailing storm
cluster, and some uptick could occur if this feature is able to
catch up to downstream convection or eventually impinge on the
effective warm sector.=20

Eventual downstream watch issuance is possible as the damaging-wind
threat increases later this morning, though timing remains
uncertain. WW 612 may be allowed to expire, unless there is a
notable short-term uptick in storm organization prior to the 13 UTC
expiration time.

..Dean/Grams.. 08/08/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!58huyC99BLAvIR2ZMXJrBW-O6z-SJf460ZsSTKS3U9Fymocv21zrU8tRdrWGr0p8-fN11bie4= ZYO0ov6WHNqGBl7Ni8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32189046 33319336 33699323 34009234 33929137 33739041
33388893 33188812 32978800 32578809 32288831 32178850
32158891 32128957 32189046=20


=3D =3D =3D
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