ACUS11 KWNS 080829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080828=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-081000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1904
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023

Areas affected...Central/southeast OK into the ArkLaMiss vicinity

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612...

Valid 080828Z - 081000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for hail and isolated severe gusts continues in
and near WW 612. Some threat may eventually spread into the
ArkLaMiss vicinity, though timing is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Convection has become widespread from
northwest/north-central OK into southeast OK/southwest AR. Measured
severe gusts were noted earlier across northern OK, while several
storms across southeast OK into southwest AR have potentially
produced severe hail, based on MRMS estimates. The environment
remains conditionally favorable for elevated supercells with large
hail, though convective mode has become increasingly complex due to
widespread storm development. Cells that are able to remain
semi-discrete with minimal interference will continue to pose a
severe-hail threat overnight.=20

With widespread convection expected to continue within a favorable
environment, some organized upscale growth is possible with time.
However, uncertainty remains regarding the timing of any such
evolution. The cluster moving across northwest/north-central OK has
the strongest surface pressure perturbation (based on OK Mesonet
obs), but storms have generally weakened across this area over the
last hour, and this trend may continue given the widespread
downstream convection. Ongoing convection across eastern OK/western
AR may be more likely to grow upscale and spread southeastward later
this morning. In either case, some severe potential may eventually
spread into the ArkLaMiss region, though timing is uncertain.

..Dean/Grams.. 08/08/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9lesZ3TYYrs-wm3NeLu4Hl26kzVz_dyfa_cjQV_3tOoGsMWzF_LIcdbhhzrjlbcVbSjgMfgsy= r2vsz_07Y4oKUL2XcA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35979931 36159764 35869570 34499301 33959214 33469146
32939124 32699156 32679220 33499424 34869685 35369858
35409942 35979931=20


=3D =3D =3D
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