ACUS11 KWNS 080433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080433=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-080530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1902
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...Southern KS...Northern OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609...

Valid 080433Z - 080530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered robust convection will propagate southeast
across southern KS into northern OK early this morning. Isolated
hail and gusty winds are possible but a new WW is not currently
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...MCS that evolved ahead of a short-wave trough over KS
has expanded a bit in areal coverage, but overall updraft
intensities appear to be weaker as outflow races ahead of
convection. Leading edge of the MCS is broken in nature with MRMS
data suggesting a few hail cores approaching 1 inch in diameter,
especially across Gray County. Low-level warm advection should allow
this activity to continue propagating southeast into northwest OK
early this morning where adequate buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse
rates should support some intensity with this activity. Even so,
overall trends are down with this complex, and unless updrafts show
signs of more than isolated intensification, new WW does not appear
warranted.

..Darrow.. 08/08/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9U-kCrQD8RF9qlL8OmohMR6EN8cBd8tpf7pNTcRo8aLHvl7Pl42HIIdHXlJHgN9-eTMP2Iv5C= Lh9VvYEgGXhwWSWaGQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 38080052 38049932 37809769 36899727 36499930 37490089
38080052=20


=3D =3D =3D
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