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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1894

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 7 21:48:24 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 072148
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072147=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-072345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1894
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0447 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

    Areas affected...Central North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 607...

    Valid 072147Z - 072345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 607
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An organized bowing line segment moving across North
    Carolina will likely continue eastward for the next couple of hours,
    regionally increasing the severe/damaging wind threat.

    DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery and lightning trends show
    a steady intensification of a bowing line segment across western NC
    over the past hour. Velocity data from KRAX as well as VWP
    observations from KMRX hint at the development of a rear inflow jet,
    which corroborates the noted radar/lightning trends. Although recent
    RAP mesoanalyses hint at a slight buoyancy deficit immediately ahead
    of this segment across central NC, modest warm/moist advection from
    the surface to 925/850 mb will likely help improve the downstream
    thermodynamic environment ahead of the line. Additionally, 30-40
    knot effective-shear vectors oriented nearly orthogonal to the line
    will compensate for any thermodynamic deficiencies and continue to
    support line organization. Consequently, there may be a corridor of
    regionally higher severe/damaging wind potential across central NC
    over the next 1-2 hours.

    ..Moore.. 08/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5eauUhksy44rVkbEmhGyBUlAokVvlF7n6HeJhlQwSSOKpD7HPT4Jem-GNr6o49jgdfs-gDBTJ= 0AMbTk4siy_4QzQTKI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 35368109 35788071 36178049 36327979 36377796 36137783
    35727785 35227810 34777855 34797932 34898040 35078104
    35368109=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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