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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1887

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 7 19:14:51 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 071914
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071914=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-072115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1887
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0214 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming...northeast Colorado...northwest Kansas...southwest Nebraska and Nebraska Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 071914Z - 072115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat as
    supercells develop and move off of the terrain this afternoon.
    Isolated severe wind gusts will occur initially and become more
    common as upscale growth occurs. A tornado or two could occur in a
    mesoscale corridor. A watch is likely this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have begun to develop within the Laramie Range,
    likely aided by a subtle, upstream shortwave trough. Farther south
    into the Front Range, convection is much less robust so far. Steep
    mid-level lapse rates and moist low levels away from the terrain
    have allowed 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE to develop in the High Plains. A
    belt of strong mid-level winds will increase effective shear values
    to 40-50 kts. Hodographs are quite long and straight throughout the
    profile. Large to very-large (2-3 inches) hail will be the primary
    concern with more isolated severe wind gusts initially. Wind gusts
    could become more prominent as upscale growth occurs later in the
    afternoon. There is a corridor of greater low-level shear along a
    boundary from the Nebraska Panhandle into northwest Kansas. There is
    also a very weak convergence zone evident on visible
    satellite/surface observations. Storms in this zone would have a
    greater potential for a tornado or two. A watch is likely for at
    least some of the central High Plains with additional watches
    possible as storms move south and east this evening.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9HoN23q87OR584y1ZLgC78bpif7FYPXRqvbUEOGre2Vtzq9U_zfuPAygbqT6aBnYW11iaAjxG= 0PtWINuTAz30F_Egi4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 38770230 38580369 38940458 40820540 41400563 41890491
    42220389 42180261 40900122 40000066 39480046 38990107
    38770230=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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