ACUS11 KWNS 071639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071639=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-071845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1880
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...portions of western New York into northern and
central Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 071639Z - 071845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of western
NY into northern and central PA. Several to potentially numerous
damaging gusts are likely and at least a couple of tornadoes are
also possible. A WW issuance will be needed in the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Clearing skies are evident to the east of a surface
low, now centered over Ontario, with surface temperatures already
exceeding 80 F amid a developing cumulus field. Though mid-level
lapse rates are relatively mediocre (i.e. 6 C/km), mid to upper 60s
F surface dewpoints, in tandem with the warm surface temperatures,
is contributing to 2000 J/kg of tall/thin SBCAPE/MUCAPE (shown via
16Z mesoanalysis). Furthermore, gradually veering low-level flow,
along with strong speed shear (driven by an approaching upper-level
jet) supports modestly cured but elongated hodographs as shown by
regional forecast soundings. Given strong forcing for ascent by an
approaching vigorous shortwave, multicells/supercells that manage to
form should quickly merge into a squall line/QLCS. Several to
potentially numerous damaging gusts are expected to accompany all
modes of convection. At least a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled
out, either with supercell structures or leading-line system-scale
mesovortices within the QLCS. A WW issuance will be needed in the
next hour or two to address the impending severe threat.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/07/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8JO3Roeuuvjqkg0KiNNwPVs_lAPQzWE_c7PJvqCDbBBwNSLECCuVzX17z-CL95iz6kEjX8fe1= mN9U9F4dQbXp8GdrkE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON 42077627 41287684 41057721 40967783 41057826 41367898
42357841 43267778 43407717 43307650 42987612 42567614
42077627=20


=3D =3D =3D
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