ACUS11 KWNS 071433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071433=20
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-071630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1878
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Tennessee Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 071433Z - 071630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe/damaging winds will increase over
the next few hours. Tornadoes are also possible, particularly for
more discrete storms across Tennessee. A watch is likely with timing
probable by late morning.

DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing from Arkansas into western
Tennessee. Given the speed and radar character of this suggests this
activity is currently elevated in nature, especially farther west.
However, modifying the 12Z observed OHX sounding for current surface
conditions suggests that MLCIN is eroding rather quickly and
strong/severe surface gusts may become more common in the next
couple of hours. Wind profiles are strong for this time of year and
2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is already present into the Tennessee Valley. Furthermore, low-level shear is certainly sufficient for low-level
rotation. Aside from a threat for severe/damaging wind gusts, there
is also potential for tornadoes. The main question will be storm
mode. Forcing for ascent may be enough to drive a more linear mode
than discrete. Convection in western Tennessee is showing some
stronger velocities on KNQA imagery. A watch is likely, but the
exact timing of the increase in storm intensity is uncertain.
Observations and guidance would suggest this could occur by late
morning.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/07/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5b6hAE6sZfDYzY0k3Mt_jCM-Gs8dfLMS7f7DzgtunQ5VOE3fiu7cktkSvgdcwn6wSaGIg6Y08= Ff2wmc_BsbM4ypMtcs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON 34008873 34208997 34808999 35498947 35678869 35798717
35768550 35518439 35168397 34338447 34148475 33788561
33948733 34048810 34008873=20


=3D =3D =3D
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