ACUS11 KWNS 070809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070809=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-071015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1875
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...Northern Oklahoma...Northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 070809Z - 071015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat will continue across parts
of northern Oklahoma over the next couple of hours. The threat may
spread east-southeastward into northwest Arkansas later tonight. The
hail threat should remain marginal, and weather watch issuance
appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Tulsa
shows an west-northwest to east-southeast band of strong storms
located across northern Oklahoma. This convection is located along
the northern edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the
RAP is analyzing MUCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition,
the RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates in northern Oklahoma generally in
the 7 to 8 C/km range. This, combined with effective shear in the 40
to 50 knot range will likely support transient supercell
development, with a threat for isolated large hail. While hail will
be likely near the more intense updrafts, wind damage will be lesser
of a threat, mainly due to a temperature inversion that is keeping
most of the storms elevated.

..Broyles/Grams.. 08/07/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ILp1bCznZZyb1Gn-y_jmXL__y02SOycaVG7nVXKp5Dlr1Fn9gXNZcLXCmCt05q0yubX_DHol= el4aSe_xYKMZy-PI5M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 36839638 36539459 36339370 36119323 35729293 35119295
34779342 34709412 35189619 35209623 35699784 36359987
36680037 36910036 36990007 37019928 36999836 36939712
36839638=20


=3D =3D =3D
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