ACUS11 KWNS 070616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070615=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-070815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1874
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...Southern Illinois...Far Southern Indiana...Far
Southwest Ohio...Western and Northern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 598...

Valid 070615Z - 070815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 598
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage and hail threat will likely
continue for a few more hours from southern Illinois, southern
Indiana and southern Ohio, gradually developing east-southeastward
into western and northern Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Louisville shows
an MCS just to the northern of the Ohio River across north-central
Kentucky, far southern Indiana and far southern Illinois. This
feature will continue to track east-southeastward along the northern
edge of moderate instability, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in
the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, the MCS
is being supported by large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough
moving through the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, the
latest WSR-88D VWP at Louisville has strong speed shear in the
low-levels, which is contributing to about 45 kt of 0-6 km shear.
This wind profile will continue to support strong multicell line
segments capable of isolated wind damage and hail.

..Broyles.. 08/07/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6zHcGCiZmmZOHzKti738jgN4_ALN7liPFu4yLC7yABG9h_c5CJBlbPtKIKVJPAvzMBC1LaRJE= BhW-x9En1djrPP6wyU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON 38118864 37918918 37518926 37218890 37138764 37268513
37508429 37898389 38298384 38578401 38868443 38958509
38818633 38368791 38118864=20


=3D =3D =3D
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