ACUS11 KWNS 061917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061916=20
OHZ000-062145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1865
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Areas affected...the southern shores of Lake Erie

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061916Z - 062145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon, which may be accompanied by the risk for a brief tornado
or two, mainly around 5-7 PM EDT. Due to the rather isolated and
marginal nature of the severe weather threat, a severe weather watch
does not appear needed, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A seasonably moist boundary layer, wrapping into an
elongated surface low (centered near the southern Michigan state
border) and ahead of a warming mid-level environment, has become the
focus for stronger recent destabilization across southeastern Ohio
into the western Lake Erie vicinity. This includes mixed-layer CAPE
increasing in excess of 1000 J/kg, which may slowly shift eastward
with a subtle short wave impulse during the next few hours, and
perhaps become maximized near or east of the Cleveland vicinity.=20=20

Widely scattered thunderstorm development is already underway, and
this probably will increase and intensify a bit further with
additional destabilization. Due to a relatively warm mid-level
environment with weak lapse rates, weak deep-layer shear and rather
modest southwesterly mean environmental flow on the order of 20-25
kts, the risk for severe weather appears generally low across most
areas, though locally strong gusts are possible.

However, in proximity to the lake breeze near the southern shores of
Lake Erie, low-level convergence and shear might become sufficient
to contribute to a short-lived supercell structure or two, which
could pose a risk for a brief tornado into early evening.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 08/06/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-hagK4NoAQMY3q7ffLYsJlg2bDi24FUTZ5GzcsRseBmaNt27NOBgGTyFdxltmSWLDdaCI4VC4= mFvJnjMK9DK90w-E1Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...

LAT...LON 41758233 41578087 40918135 41108202 41248281 41758233=20


=3D =3D =3D
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