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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1862

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 6 16:49:45 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 061649
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061649=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-061845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1862
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1149 AM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023

    Areas affected...portions of northern Mississippi into northern and
    central Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 061649Z - 061845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging gusts are possible this afternoon in association
    with multicellular storms. Convective trends are being monitored for
    the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures are exceeding 90 F amid upper 70s
    F dewpoints across much of the Southeast due to clear skies/ample
    diurnal heating. 12Z observed regional soundings and the latest
    mesoanalysis showed mid-level lapse rates of around 6.5 C/km
    overspreading the rich low-level airmass, which is contributing to
    5000+ J/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE. While vertical wind shear is overall weak,
    the extreme instability and around 2 inch PWATs should foster
    strong, water-loaded updrafts/storm-cores, which may in turn produce
    damaging gusts.=20

    The main uncertainty at the moment is the timing of greater storm
    coverage. MRMS mosaic radar data depicts a multicellular cluster of
    storms in northern MS with 30/50 dBZ cores exceeding 60/45 kft,
    suggesting that water-loaded storm cores may already be
    materializing. These storms have developed a bit earlier than
    simulated storm clusters in some of the latest high-resolution
    convection allowing guidance. As such, convective trends will
    continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/06/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6P3v6VJM-_7giIpFM3JjEMVeSNMHPhfM3sJgbFm5vTCw8ozXOlvio-N5Syt77wm06iGcqF_oA= Ky7KH4RFAFnWEbs1Ck$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 32728839 33178894 33538938 33788979 34079002 34258996
    34678955 34958807 34908667 34668617 34178565 33638540
    33088536 32688561 32488594 32368636 32428701 32518768
    32718832 32728839=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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