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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1852

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 5 23:12:04 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 052311
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052311=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-060115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1852
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0611 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

    Areas affected...Lower Ohio River Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 052311Z - 060115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along a surface trough/cool front
    will likely pose a hail/wind risk over the next few hours through
    the lower Ohio River Valley.

    DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms have rapidly intensified over
    southern IL over the past hour. These storms are developing within
    the apex of buoyancy gradient that extends into the lower OH River
    Valley with MLCAPE upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg and (evidently)
    negligible inhibition. VWP observations from KPAH show mid-level
    winds between 30-35 knots with much of the environmental shear
    concentrated in the lowest 2-3 km. While not overly favorable for
    storm organization, this wind profile is adequate for loosely
    organized supercells. Furthermore, storm motions largely orthogonal
    to the initiating surface trough will favor discrete to
    semi-discrete cells that may pose a severe hail risk prior to
    gradual upscale growth downstream (with an attendant increase in
    damaging wind potential). Given the modest kinematics, it is unclear
    whether these buoyancy-driven cells will pose a sufficiently long
    threat to warrant watch issuance, but trends will be monitored.

    ..Moore/Mosier.. 08/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5vYOiapc28qaebotvJtsOJjZPG-Iusv-Ie6F1KJtx7P9wJ8Djp9Qg6xDDgrqHNvcNtiOf63AL= UUZG-7L93Dt6UVH42c$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 37228975 37878917 38228836 38428658 38188607 37828603
    37348621 36878657 36468748 36418850 36528931 36718981
    37228975=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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