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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1848

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 5 22:03:03 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 052202
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052202=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1848
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0502 PM CDT Sat Aug 05 2023

    Areas affected...Northwestern Iowa into adjacent areas of South
    Dakota and Nebraska

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 589...

    Valid 052202Z - 060000Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 589 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for a tornado or two continues across
    northwestern Iowa into adjacent areas of southeast South Dakota and
    northwest Nebraska.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity over the mid-Missouri River
    Valley continues to be focused along a surface warm front noted in
    recent surface analysis. By most metrics, this convective intensity
    has been muted with modest reflectivity values, transient lightning
    pulses, and somewhat warm cloud top temperatures. However, cells
    continue to take on supercellular characteristics early on in their
    life cycle, and weak low to mid-level rotation is noted in KFSD
    velocity data. KFSD VWP observations well north of the warm front
    show 0-1 km SRH values near 200 m2/s2 where surface winds are
    easterly. This is likely an overestimate for the what cells are
    experiencing along the warm front (where winds are out of the
    southeast). But taken in context of the velocity trends suggests
    that SRH is likely sufficient to maintain a tornado threat for more
    robust cells that can become established prior to moving into a more
    stable air mass north/northeast of the warm front.

    ..Moore.. 08/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_d6sMhSbgMK9JLK_JmvnzwRDbyGC4WT3LAd_ALrbd2oQUabtwldvZOMGLoRhsZuZnRi1_vz7-= qPohlrOLMZIe3KU5IY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 41489551 41949588 42389633 42729702 43049721 43339697
    43289606 42879521 42589469 42119433 41599426 41289444
    41189467 41159502 41239529 41489551=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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