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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1840

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 5 04:41:24 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 050441
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050440=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-050645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1840
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1140 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern CO into western KS and extreme southwest NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 050440Z - 050645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts
    will be possible overnight. Watch issuance is currently considered
    unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...In the wake of an earlier storm complex that is now
    weakening over south-central NE, renewed storm development has been
    noted north of the trailing outflow across northeast CO into far
    southwest NE. Another strong storm complex is moving slowly eastward
    across southeast CO. The southernmost complex may tend to weaken as
    it moves into increasing MLCINH, but elevated storms will likely
    increase in coverage overnight north of the outflow into eastern CO
    and northwest KS, within a modest warm advection regime.=20

    Steep midlevel lapse rates will be supportive of some hail risk with
    the overnight elevated storms, though the coverage and duration of
    the hail risk may be somewhat limited by a tendency for more of a
    cluster or linear mode as storms increase in coverage. Storms will
    eventually spread southeastward into a larger portion of western KS
    overnight, though the potential for organized MCS development
    appears limited due to the lack of a stronger low-level jet. Thus,
    while isolated strong/severe gusts will be possible with any forward-propagating cluster, coverage of the wind threat will likely
    remain isolated as well.

    ..Dean/Mosier.. 08/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4dX3RT8YR5mULhR9JSlCFPop2hh2EqIn4Xq3rKp0QlT_muCp3-P5F93OVDFHjttMb2ZIc8Svz= 2-PqHthVTRANCCJVhc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 40080284 40440064 39539958 38089980 37800038 37520102
    37440293 37840316 39130330 39720314 40080284=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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