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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1839

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 5 02:09:54 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 050209
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050209=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-050345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1839
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0909 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

    Areas affected...Northwest KS into central NE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586...

    Valid 050209Z - 050345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for occasional severe gusts and isolated hail
    may continue into late evening.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has evolved into a compact QLCS across
    southwest NE into extreme northwest KS, with some measured severe
    gusts recently noted across this area. While MLCINH will gradually
    increase with time and eastward extent and eventually lead to a
    weakening trend later tonight, rich low-level moisture and moderate
    instability (with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) will help to sustain the
    ongoing convection in the short term, with occasional severe gusts
    remaining possible into late evening. There is some potential for a
    severe-wind threat to approach the southeastern edge of WW 586, and
    the need for possible local watch expansion will continue to be
    monitored.=20

    Farther north, convection has remained somewhat more discrete into north-central NE. The stronger discrete cells have occasionally
    produced large hail, and may continue to do so over the next 1-2
    hours. Some consolidation of convection along the composite outflow
    will be possible, which could briefly increase the severe-wind
    threat before a general weakening trend later tonight.

    ..Dean.. 08/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!91j9VcYr8eJ13xScXGtGAwOTZy6N4scFgNJ06DTiYWnDiRIoZD4UkRDYBdfmIX3jzHj-Py-93= IV2b1mPwOhMTbuqJ3M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 42900006 42669876 41879848 40619861 39689874 39319941
    39360025 39340085 39490146 39740162 40480092 41050060
    41680036 42900006=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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