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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1838

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 5 00:48:20 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 050048
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050047=20
    MOZ000-050245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1838
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0747 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

    Areas affected...Central Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 585...

    Valid 050047Z - 050245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 585
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across much of WW 585, but
    will likely be focused over the next 1-2 hours along a surface warm
    front where additional storm initiation is underway.

    DISCUSSION...Surface observations over the past hour have shown
    little overall change in the mesoscale environment; however,
    supercells continue to develop on the intersection of the surface
    warm front and surface trough. A few of these cells have
    demonstrated organized mesocyclones capable of producing tornadoes
    (with at two tornadoes reported so far) prior to gradual weakening
    via destructive storm interactions. These cells have also produced
    strong winds with a couple of wind gust estimates upwards of 60 mph.
    The expectation is for these threats to continue over the next 1-2
    hours - especially as storms continue to develop along the warm
    front where low-level helicity is locally augmented. While initial
    supercells remain likely within this zone, the duration of any
    individual cell remains uncertain given long residence within the
    zone of ascent, which will continue to foster storm interactions.
    With time, the MCV/thunderstorm cluster is expected to track to the east/southeast as it rounds the apex of a buoyancy axis located over
    central MO. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for an
    extension of the watch across eastern MO later this evening.

    ..Moore.. 08/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6XSNXvu0HAcS6YhtJsGiFSd6nnQOP19xfDGql648_O4Rj7UzUgPaA8LmQ7-600KCD1wGhzNwc= A2oTzeUlWH1MMqpOqI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 38569328 38829351 39129344 39569326 39779262 39389119
    38869107 38279131 38129179 38249222 38569328=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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