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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1836

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 4 22:51:51 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 042251
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042251=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-050045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1836
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0551 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

    Areas affected...Southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 042251Z - 050045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic wind damage will be possible over the next hour
    or so as a broken line of storm approaches the FL coast. Watch
    issuance is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms moving south/southeast across
    southern AL has shown signs of gradual intensification over the past
    1-2 hours. Thus far, weak winds through the vertical column have
    limited storm intensity/organization with a maximum measured wind
    speed of 42 knots. Concurrently, a second line of storms has
    intensified over northern FL after a favorable sea-breeze
    interaction. A favorable downstream environment featuring 2000-2500
    J/kg MLCAPE, PWAT values near 1.75 inches, and 8-8.5 C/km low-level
    lapse rates may support strong water-loaded downdrafts with the more
    intense updrafts within both of these lines over the next 1-2 hours. Consequently, sporadic damaging winds will be possible as these
    storms approach the FL coast. Given the limited nature of the
    threat, watch issuance is not anticipated.

    ..Moore/Mosier.. 08/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9wuDjl-pfZ6DsmI0caEAiJX-m-Ge9G94KNsygd7n52TnVT_jB3r64AefS0V50brfZ2v4Pcjae= ObOcrIFdLcr4cH_SxM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 31118706 31388639 31718587 31818563 31578489 31008392
    30558311 30348287 29838258 29548274 29328314 29728385
    29808421 29658467 29538501 29668552 29958590 30238650
    30368698 30448703 31118706=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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