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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1833

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 4 20:23:20 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 042023
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042022=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-042145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1833
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0322 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

    Areas affected...portions of western South Dakota into the Nebraska
    Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 042022Z - 042145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A short-term threat exists across portions of the central
    High Plains for isolated severe hail/wind, with a relatively higher
    severe threat possible later this afternoon/evening. A WW issuance
    is unlikely in the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Increasing lightning trends (via NLDN) and the depth of
    convective cores (i.e. MRMS mosaic radar imagery showing 30 dBZ
    cores exceeding 45 kft) suggest that thunderstorms may be increasing
    across portions of the central High Plains. Ahead of the
    intensifying storms, surface temperatures are warming into the mid
    80s F amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints (based on current
    observations), boosting MLCAPE to 1500+ J/kg. 20Z mesoanalysis shows
    relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear
    overspreading the central High Plains, suggesting that the severe
    threat should remain isolated over the next few hours. A couple
    instances of severe hail/wind are the main concerns. The severe
    threat should appreciably increase late this afternoon/evening as a
    low-level jet develops. In the meantime, a WW issuance is unlikely
    given the shorter-term, isolated severe threat.

    ..Squitieri/Goss.. 08/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4T7jLKsFEEHG5m5MMYT-ZEwzJZHBtn6_BoAZM8Sy621mPVitLYUmKuqkaxaU72Y-tDd_fY6n3= 8RaBBdq8f9MjsDiSeU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40970388 43140362 44070326 45010183 44940119 44340068
    43470095 42280162 41560204 41010303 40970388=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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