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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1831

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 4 18:49:50 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 041849
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041849=20
    PAZ000-042045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1831
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0149 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

    Areas affected...central and northeast PA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 584...

    Valid 041849Z - 042045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 584
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A mesoscale corridor for stronger thunderstorms within
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch #584 may focus downstream of the storms
    over central into northeast PA for the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Radar/visible-satellite imagery mosaic shows a broken
    band of strong to locally severe cellular storms from northern PA
    southwestward into central PA. Surface analysis shows the
    thunderstorms near or immediately ahead of the primary wind shift.=20
    Surface temperatures over central PA --where low clouds eroded
    earlier compared to eastern PA-- have warmed to near 80 deg F
    whereas slightly cooler temperatures are in eastern PA. Heating
    prior to the band of storms' arrival will further steepen low-level
    lapse rates and aid in destabilization. Analysis of the Binghamton,
    NY 88D VAD shows some increase in flow from 25-35 kt in the 6-8 km
    AGL layer to 35-50 kt during the past 3 hours. This increase in mid
    to upper-level flow will aid in storm organization. As such, a
    severe risk with locally damaging gusts and isolated large hail will
    be possible with the stronger storms over the next couple of hours
    from the Delaware River southwestward into central PA.

    ..Smith.. 08/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_QzhSJB-NbURL_qlm31wAkD6AkjGwDg2LRylf3Z72rJExGJykcbNAmaeO45fHEelXxfb9-zaF= f1qBquWp4DrO1qFl6Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...

    LAT...LON 40817787 41777595 41697528 41487506 41247509 40527654
    40467705 40627755 40817787=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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