ACUS11 KWNS 032334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032333=20
VTZ000-NYZ000-040200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1826
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023

Areas affected...much of northern New York into Vermont

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 032333Z - 040200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage this evening near Lake
Ontario and across much of northern New York and Vermont. Conditions
will favor marginal hail and locally damaging gusts. Watch potential
will depend on storm trends over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Numerous storms persist across southwest Ontario this
evening, with eastern extent of the stronger activity just north of
Lake Ontario. Cooler trajectories off the lake have likely slowed
the eastward progression of these cells as they have generally
favored the warmer inflow from the west. Downstream of these storms
into northern NY and VT, modest instability developed during the
afternoon with ample heating and cool air aloft steepening lapse
rates. Convergence and storm development has been generally limited
to the warm advection area along the eastern instability gradient
along the NY/VT border. Here, low-level veering of the winds with
height have supported sporadic strong cells with supercell
characteristics at times, with 0-1 SRH around 100-150 m2/s2.

As storms beneath the upper trough persist over Canada, additional
outflow may be produced, with various zones of convergence possibly
helping to initiate new storms into northern NY. While the CU fields
have diminished with loss of heating, the air mass remains largely
uncapped, and it will not take much lift to initiate new storms with
wind or marginal hail threat over the next several hours. As such,
trends will be monitored for possible uptick in storm activity.

..Jewell/Mosier.. 08/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9v2Td4xgBws3QL3Mj0wvUt6B7DCB5OgidOx13_ki-QL2R9cHFPxgl5CE-Fmk36TsxfBIE7MRw= pekfYmQMWBhtEDcAbk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 42797476 42787668 42937696 43137700 43437687 43777654
44467589 45027505 45027361 45057282 45037250 44437242
43997278 43487341 43157381 42907432 42797476=20


=3D =3D =3D
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