ACUS11 KWNS 032249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032248=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-040045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1824
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Mississippii

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581...

Valid 032248Z - 040045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms persisting on the western fringe of WW 581
may continue to pose a sporadic damaging wind threat over the next
few hours. However, this threat will remain too localized to warrant
further watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The convective line moving southward across AL and far
eastern MS continues to become predominantly outflow dominant.
However, one section of the line along the MS/AL border that is more
parallel to the deep-layer shear/cold pool propagation vector has
maintained a somewhat balance updraft/downdraft convergence zone
with strong, but transient, updrafts noted in IR imagery. It is
unclear how much longer this balance will be maintained as this
section of the line moves south/southwest, but the downstream
environment remains thermodynamically favorable for robust updrafts
with MLCAPE values near 1500-2000 J/kg. Furthermore, steep low-level
lapse rates and dewpoint depressions between 20-25 F will maintain
the potential for sporadic damaging winds prior to the onset of
diurnal cooling after 01 UTC.

..Moore.. 08/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ueC65scedZNWguX2LqaRrHJM4LJDC7YOWi02mTM8vd1DDRKddu--OfHtkRsGTaUaXax3uTjw= UU8QrC0Jnu9s3ywofE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 33248877 32798814 32388800 31968818 31858842 31888880
32008921 32308952 32748950 33008933 33238909 33248877=20


=3D =3D =3D
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