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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1823

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 3 21:50:10 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 032150
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032149=20
    MIZ000-032345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1823
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0449 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023

    Areas affected...Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 032149Z - 032345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may pose an isolated threat for
    sporadic severe/damaging winds and large hail across lower Michigan
    through the evening hours. Given the limited nature of the threat,
    watch issuance is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of cells moving onshore across northwest
    Lower MI have demonstrated transient signs of organization over the
    past hour per KGRR and KAPX imagery. This activity, including a cell
    along the eastern WI shore, has produced near-severe wind/hail over
    the past couple of hours, including a 57 mph wind gust and 0.75 inch
    hail. The regional thermodynamic and kinematic environment appear
    adequate for convective maintenance with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and
    0-6 km bulk wind difference values approaching 30 knots. The
    somewhat disorganized/clustered nature of the convection and modest
    deep-layer shear will modulate the overall severe threat to some
    degree, but sporadic severe hail and damaging winds appear possible
    over the next few hours as these storms spread southeast across
    Lower MI.

    ..Moore/Mosier.. 08/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9F_jrV-mZKsDvjSoxCTaSEgz7hp6spVApkkuXK_RmniM5Vcgdg2ZAJt1XX0slBN2DMs95MN66= mB7MwWYUrbnkA3V4pw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 44038642 45028578 44878500 44458410 44038312 43678269
    42858248 42348307 42208371 42518489 42948569 43178614
    43398642 43688652 44038642=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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