ACUS11 KWNS 032013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032013=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-032215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1821
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming...Nebraska Panhandle...Northeast
Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 032013Z - 032215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Initial storm development is occurring from the Front
Range into southeast Wyoming. As storms intensify, large hail and
strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. A watch is possible this
afternoon as convective evolution becomes more clear.

DISCUSSION...The influence of a shortwave trough moving into the
northern Rockies is evident on visible satellite with storms
beginning to develop from the Laramie Range into the Front Range.
Convection from earlier this morning in eastern Colorado and parts
of western/central Nebraska has left some outflow that has been
slower to destabilize despite several hours of heating. Even so,
temperatures are starting to approach the low 80s F with dewpoints
remaining in the low 60s F away from the terrain. Additional storms
are expected to develop through the afternoon both along the terrain
and the Palmer Divide. While deep-layer shear is not overly strong, particularly with northward extent, modest flow enhancement at mid
levels is contributing to 25-35 kts of shear. The most organized
storms will be capable of large hail. In general, a mixed mode of
marginal supercells and multicell clusters is expected with
potential for a linear segment or two to develop as storms interact. Strong/severe wind gusts will become the primary threat over time as
this upscale growth occurs.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 08/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4KIn95tXvO5UAiOaWim_5aYXGfXcDFbNlQQCHaUy6LRG6-emu3IGQ8wY6fmTg_-1ZGmLE3KBl= 4PbyPQmMFYK5PBDjHU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41720202 39820259 38560263 38350329 38450414 38680455
39110473 39370480 39900502 40370516 41090535 41630523
42620476 42690474 42980332 42920244 42600228 41720202=20


=3D =3D =3D
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