ACUS11 KWNS 020050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020049=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-020215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1811
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 020049Z - 020215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible with convection this evening.

DISCUSSION...Several weak disturbances are progressing across the
Great Basin/Four Corners region toward the central Rockies/High
Plains early this evening. One such feature appears to be aiding
recent increase in convection across northeast CO. Over the last
hour or so, scattered thunderstorms have increased in areal coverage
from near CYS to east of LIC. This activity is propagating slowly
northeast toward a region characterized by seasonally high moisture
(surface dew points in the upper 60s/lower 70s)/instability,
extending across southern NE/northwest KS, just north of a
pronounced surface boundary. Latest model guidance suggests LLJ will
begin to increase across the High Plains from the TX Panhandle into north-central KS after sunset. This may contribute to upscale growth
and a possible MCS later this evening. Severe wind gusts may be
noted with this activity if it continues to evolve and mature into a
larger complex.

..Darrow/Grams.. 08/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8gP-U_51F-2CUZLAxZTicCjJewk7B6vsbXGHuZD8WUJL2V-rq6CRIKa_SbazrIzRPdxYJ3y_m= n0w00Iv3ieJWUJf0OA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40760399 41730144 41249974 39729987 39130318 40760399=20


=3D =3D =3D
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