ACUS11 KWNS 012244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012244=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-020015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1809
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0544 PM CDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Areas affected...Southern North Dakota...northern South Dakota...and
portions of western Minnesota.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 578...

Valid 012244Z - 020015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 578
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue this evening with a threat for
large hail and wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along and ahead of a
surface front across central North Dakota into western Minnesota. 40
knots of flow at 6km and 55 knots at 8km (per MVX VWP) has provided
ample shear for storm organization, including some supercells.
However, the environment is very favorable for downdrafts and
significant outflow boundaries have emanated from initial
convection. Colliding boundaries should continue to produce
additional thunderstorms, but stabilization from the outflow
boundaries should limit the longevity of individual storms and
perhaps is partially responsible for the lack of much large hail
thus far. Ongoing thunderstorm activity should persist through the
evening before mostly waning after sunset.

..Bentley.. 08/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_dysp3YJ7Wr5bXoVSqOxcYgtvm0lfNgXCnBiDArillVRLaFDu1jR-20QOiDYOXo8ArZv6cuwI= xl02KJCuzCTeT6C230$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 46710201 47310160 47819831 48139678 48309565 48229527
47119480 46289515 45519712 45279998 45330114 45830196
46710201=20


=3D =3D =3D
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