ACUS11 KWNS 011816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011816=20
FLZ000-011945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1804
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Areas affected...the eastern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011816Z - 011945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts may accompany the stronger
storms. Severe gusts should be isolated at best and a WW issuance is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed off of an
eastward-moving sea-breeze boundary across western/central portions
of the FL peninsula over the past few hours. This sea-breeze
boundary and associated thunderstorms are moving toward an ambient
airmass characterized by 90+ F surface temperatures amid mid to
upper 70s F dewpoints, resulting in over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE despite
poor lapse rates aloft. Vertical shear is weak, suggesting that
severe potential should remain isolated. Nonetheless, a few damaging
gusts cannot be ruled out with some of the stronger, water-loaded
storm cores, especially where storm/cold-pool mergers can occur.
Since severe gusts should remain isolated, a WW issuance is not
anticipated.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 08/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9f9sfEaNGwXa5uW513x3p4ydUDT_m0f8b-6dsuD3LpKECbX2m93c_6jkTpbHCxYSQfaAWEqHB= n30vw-E5nRjF6iBXpg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 25788083 27218174 28628185 30298198 30528183 30298149
29468098 28278058 26888004 26028004 25748026 25788083=20


=3D =3D =3D
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