ACUS11 KWNS 010830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010830=20
MOZ000-011100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1802
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Areas affected...Central and Southern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 010830Z - 011100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large-hail threat will continue across parts
of central Missouri over the next few hours. The threat will likely
affect southern Missouri later tonight. However, the potential for
large hail should remain marginal and weather watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Springfield,
Missouri shows a convective cluster, with a few embedded supercells,
oriented northwest to southeast across west-central Missouri. The
storms are located to the north of a quasi-stationary front
extending east-southeastward across southern Missouri. The storms
are being supported by a shortwave trough evident on water-vapor
imagery, and evidenced by a 500 mb speed enhancement over the mid
Mississippi Valley. Forecast soundings in central Missouri suggest
that a temperature inversion is present below 900 mb which is
keeping the convection elevated. MUCAPE is estimated to be in the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range according to the RAP, with effective shear
of 30 to 40 knots. This will make isolated large hail a possibility
with the more intense cores. The elevated nature of the convection
is expected to limit the wind-damage potential. Low to mid-level
lapse are not that steep, suggesting any severe threat will remain
marginal.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 08/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5oOfnRGaj9-DSKykvZ6OeU4ERsi92fXB68JHhLOuyjwZNaZzYI-e2YvQUNKEcuyZgrtTJBuYQ= c5s_g2JL2S2xkR6tE8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 38239196 38739277 38879324 38529361 37829313 36769210
36709090 37269056 38239196=20


=3D =3D =3D
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