ACUS11 KWNS 010148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010148=20
NDZ000-010315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1801
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Areas affected...Northern/central ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 577...

Valid 010148Z - 010315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 577
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells may persist into late evening before
weakening.

DISCUSSION...Two strong thunderstorms have persisted this evening
across northern and central ND. While the environment generally
remains favorable for organized storms, with MLCAPE in excess of
2000 J/kg and effective shear of 45-50 kt (per the 00 UTC BIS
sounding), these storms have struggled to maintain severe intensity
this evening. This may be due to a combination of dry midlevel
conditions and rather weak storm-relative flow, in the absence of
stronger large-scale ascent or surface mass response.=20

The northernmost supercell likely has the greatest potential for
persisting into late evening, since it is a larger storm and is
associated with a broader convective outflow. This storm has
recently intensified, and strong mid/upper-level flow (in addition
to the instability/shear environment described above) remains
favorable for large hail production. Strong to potentially severe
outflow gusts will also remain possible with this storm. The
southern storm has occasionally displayed supercell characteristics,
but has struggled to grow in size and intensify, and may be more
prone to dissipation in the near term. However, this storm will also
pose an isolated hail threat for as long as it persists this
evening.

..Dean.. 08/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5pZPdg-g2EUxbkmlOngcb11FA8rmtvf15xSRw0TM5w0wgjMcNmr-L_UF7pAffnnciLQ1L4pVL= 9_4IoGiyINfbCrfhbQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48430078 48570025 48479945 47759897 47259895 46939919
46919963 47049998 47460035 48130074 48430078=20


=3D =3D =3D
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