ACUS11 KWNS 312047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312047=20
SDZ000-WYZ000-312215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1799
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Areas affected...portions of western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 312047Z - 312215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail/wind may accompany
storms developing over the Black Hills. The severe threat should
remain isolated and a WW issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across the Black
Hills in western SD, with MRMS mosaic radar imagery showing 30 dBZ
echo tops exceeding 45 kft on these storms. MLCINH continues to
erode, with near 90 F/low 60s F surface temperatures/dewpoints
supporting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Elongated hodographs are
contributing to 40 kts of effective bulk shear, which may support
supercell structures capable of large hail and severe gusts.
Convective coverage should remain localized, and a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is not currently expected.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4DqIrd3RFY64OKZgdJgZNegyXZdq1Bx-KBvPc-wW_sfnvElG3Y2WGaKAlG89rDfipQJ8GTpsO= ChzGh1GPORPUvM7wBI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON 43510385 44320407 44820370 44960284 44880201 44690142
44260114 43700121 43430180 43360314 43510385=20


=3D =3D =3D
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