ACUS11 KWNS 311706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311706=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-311830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1798
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Areas affected...the Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 311706Z - 311830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A severe gust or two may accompany some of the stronger
storm cores today. The severe threat should be sparse and a WW
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating has aided surface temperatures to reach
90 F amid mid to upper 70s F dewpoints, contributing to over 2000
J/kg MLCAPE. Given poor vertical shear profiles and mediocre lapse
rates, the most likely source for damaging gusts would be
water-loaded downdrafts. The strongest storm cores could support a
severe gust or two. Nonetheless, given the expected isolated nature
of the severe threat, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not expected.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_q8ZMP10tB2utN_4aS8LM58UzepafKkOkkeGCJ70Ej2aH2nhPtoLONN8LZ4o7HAQI0aoz5ewM= 54hrxtFpIEqBHZoNgQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 25938160 27918252 30038282 30458233 30228172 29568116
28508065 27338017 26657995 25708015 25258038 25208080
25348109 25938160=20


=3D =3D =3D
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