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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1796

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 31 05:54:13 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 310554
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310553=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-310800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1796
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

    Areas affected...Far Southern Missouri...Arkansas...Northwest
    Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575...576...

    Valid 310553Z - 310800Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575, 576
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat is expected to continue over the next
    few hours, developing southeastward into parts of central and
    eastern Arkansas. A new weather watch will be needed soon ahead of
    the existing watch.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Little Rock shows
    a well-developed bowing MCS near the Arkansas-Missouri state line.
    The MCS is being supported by a shortwave trough embedded in
    northwest mid-level flow, evident on water vapor imagery. The MCS
    will continue to move southeastward at 40 to 50 knots along the
    northeastward edge of a corridor of moderate to strong instability,
    where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range.
    In addition, surface dewpoints along the track of the MCS are in the
    mid to upper 70s F. The environment should support a wind-damage
    threat that will likely continue along the leading edge of the
    bowing line segment. The wind-damage threat is expected to develop
    into central and eastern Arkansas, and may also affect parts of
    northwest Mississippi later tonight.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/31/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6JWP6YRO85y-q6bmAsabN_9QSf83M0sxTYSip5cnqCuh1Z-Wy1FqXbob_yAaJOnAFGPNkDIrM= 9SFwbMOsgTzlvPcaqw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...TSA...

    LAT...LON 36839200 37089231 37079269 36859278 36339298 36149343
    36039376 35729375 35219345 34329256 33839188 33639119
    33949048 34419029 35119049 36839200=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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