ACUS11 KWNS 310016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310015=20
AZZ000-310145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1792
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Areas affected...Portions of south-central Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 310015Z - 310145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this
evening with the potential for damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have started to develop in the mountains
northeast of Phoenix and also in south-central Pima county. The 00Z
TUS RAOB shows some 25 knot easterly flow and recent PHX ACARS
soundings show around 20 to 25 knots of easterly flow. This
mid-level flow, combined with weak westerly low-level flow, provides
ample shear for storm organization. Some upscale growth into a
westward moving cluster is possible, especially with the activity in
far eastern Maricopa and Pinal counties where several storm cores
are already evident. If these storms remain organized as they move
west of the higher terrain, damaging winds could be possible in
portions of the Phoenix metro area. Instability remains somewhat
weak (~700 J/kg MLCAPE per TUS 00Z RAOB with similar surface
conditions across much of south-central Arizona) and will likely
preclude the need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

..Bentley/Grams.. 07/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!50vuRmGf9xCswBW0NkIFeXO5uCULJp0nsMusfrDXzKjBbIo_6bx7ZEoPWjjqT__h7BO8cZkNq= tNIpLwuo6F1yAEPzbo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 31381162 32241118 33521094 33841091 34031159 33981247
33771323 33071357 32061361 31381162=20


=3D =3D =3D
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