ACUS11 KWNS 310014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310013=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-310245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1791
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Areas affected...much of northern into northeastern
Kansas...northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 310013Z - 310245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms extending from northern Kansas into northwest
Missouri may periodically produce damaging gusts or hail. Expected
coverage and duration of severe risk is not expected to necessitate
a watch.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have erupted near a warm front, where
hot temperatures over 100 F to the south have helped to break the
cap. One notable cluster of storms continues to push south/southeast
into far northeast KS and toward the Kansas City area, with a 48 kt
gusts recently measured at FNB. Given the breadth of this convection
and persistent motion, additional gusts to severe limits may occur.=20

Farther west along into KS north of I-70, a few storms have shown
indications of severe hail. Modest northwest flow aloft atop the
low-level southerlies are indeed resulting in favorable hodographs
for hail production. The 00Z TOP sounding indicates ample
instability with 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, and effective shear around 45
kt. While capping is expected to limit/decrease storms later this
evening, an hour or two period of severe hail or localized damaging
gusts will persist over the northern half of KS in closer proximity
to the deeper boundary layer moisture near the warm front. GPS water
vapor sensors, as well as clearer sky conditions, further support
the likely limited southward extent of the threat this evening.

..Jewell/Grams.. 07/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5uB8k-PpMSGPASjROuFA_CFkKpXgseQiMEWcEyeQ2UHq4xCQRyOUUJJV389mH5G7eEi7zyDp-= 4iciDpz5x8zG9sKnWM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 39019945 39279950 39629929 39939829 40009728 39959610
40029510 40009441 39619400 39219384 38809377 38379388
37819420 37659463 37789529 38109585 38369655 38619831
38829903 39019945=20


=3D =3D =3D
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