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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1790

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 30 21:43:08 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 302143
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302142=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-302315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1790
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0442 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

    Areas affected...Central and Eastern Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 302142Z - 302315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is possible this
    afternoon/evening across eastern Montana.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon
    across northeast Montana. 12Z CAM guidance was split whether this
    elevated convection would be strong/severe, however, current radar
    trends suggest a supercell or two, similar to the 12Z WRF-ARW/NSSL
    may be the most likely evolution. If this activity continues to
    intensify, it could eventually become surface based as heating and
    low-level moisture advection destabilizes the airmass ahead of it.

    Similarly, thunderstorms across southeast Montana are also likely
    somewhat elevated, but are moving into an airmass with increasing
    surface based instability and reducing inhibition. If one or both of
    these regions appear to "turn the corner", a watch may be needed in
    the next 1 to 2 hours.=20

    Regardless of this early activity across eastern Montana, a severe
    thunderstorm watch is more likely later this evening for supercells
    which are expected to form in central Montana and move east. At this
    time, inhibition appears to be limiting more robust convective
    development, but with a few more hours of heating and upslope flow,
    expect an uncapped airmass and a few mature supercells to develop
    and move off of the higher terrain. A strengthening southeasterly
    low-level jet later this evening and increasing moisture advection
    should maintain this threat into the early morning hours on Monday.

    ..Bentley/Grams.. 07/30/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Ii0bZIHf-TyWO_V_G76VOEggjbwUpreTvMtMWSj2IhBWxupv7KHeMGprRV6cqnFOSKtNuAcb= QGHKfKw17RaWd_tHss$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 47000977 48290987 48740966 49100794 49130567 49100434
    48520378 46910360 45690350 44990401 44830531 44990688
    45160811 47000977=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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