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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1789

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 30 20:27:07 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 302027
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302026=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-302230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1789
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0326 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...far western Iowa...far northwest Missouri...far northeast Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 302026Z - 302230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of occasional large hail are possible this
    afternoon. Overall coverage and intensify of storms is not certain.
    The necessity of a watch will depend on convective trends.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have continued to form in association with a
    subtle shortwave/weak warm-advection regime. These storms have
    occasionally produced large hail this afternoon in South Dakota.
    Additional thunderstorms have formed in eastern Nebraska, west of
    Omaha. MLCAPE of around 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kts
    would support some continued risk of large hail. Storms, however,
    have not appeared overly organized on regional radar imagery and
    have tended to pulse intensity. The 12Z observed OAX and TOP
    soundings did show some dry air at low levels which appears to be
    reflected in objective MLCIN fields. That being said, these storms
    may be slightly elevated in nature. The need for a watch will be
    conditional on trends in storm coverage and intensity.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/30/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8fu-6h5Bh8IeavshOQmTL5SgOZw691wa2uck7U2azqv7N5aZpP3KChhE_j_QK1BfZ7Hk6v8S0= HVp4tUOiCg3hpPFj5Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

    LAT...LON 41709808 42609822 43109821 43409758 42789655 41919585
    40989503 40219511 39919562 39979641 41709808=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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