ACUS11 KWNS 300129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300128=20
MTZ000-300500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1784
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...parts of central to north-central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 300128Z - 300500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe storms capable of primarily large hail may
affect parts of central and north-central Montana into the night.
Coverage of severe may remain too isolated for a large-scale watch.

DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have formed over far southern Alberta,
as well as over the higher terrain of central MT aided by full-day
heating and weak but moist easterly low-level flow. The 00Z
soundings from TFX and GGW show cool midlevel temperatures along
with very long hodographs with MLCAPE 600-800 J/kg. Given the
marginal moisture and instability, hail may not become particularly
large, but wind profiles could favor large amounts of hail over
1.00" while evaporative cooling aids downdraft potential. Models in
general indicate sporadic cells persisting for several more hours,
with the longest duration threat near the US/CN border as the
activity turns east/southeast out of southern AB.

..Jewell/Grams.. 07/30/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5LMs1sFbh36to2ZZy8jH9ctR1GiToeZeqJN2e4C6pdnADQ_UMH3YoOrWThRHeqXkSEOKJ9XUk= O8bbGCY3QgXj7JmMjA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 47191070 47501097 48341194 48881240 49051231 49040807
48650780 48100760 47490761 47140778 47000822 47191070=20


=3D =3D =3D
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