ACUS11 KWNS 300120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300119=20
AZZ000-300215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1783
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0819 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 300119Z - 300215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible this evening
across southern Arizona.

DISCUSSION...A few storms have formed across the higher terrain
across southern Arizona this evening. SPC mesoanalysis shows a
mostly capped airmass across most of the region, suggesting that
storms may struggle to maintain intensity once they move off of the
terrain. More organized storms remain mostly in Mexico where
stronger instability and better easterly shear is present. Both
shear and instability are more marginal north of the border and
thus, the severe wind threat should remain marginal/isolated.
Therefore, no severe thunderstorm watch is anticipated this evening.

..Bentley/Grams.. 07/30/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4os_AszU0ROaPygi_vmB9zyxpX7XpvTxJ6NyyHzunsbS7BYKBga-VR-pRVNlnSj7bTAywyGbd= U0qSC971ECkK9Ler-E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON 31211079 31621045 32100996 32641000 33241026 33611061
33511137 33161196 32481250 32041256 31691259 31211079=20


=3D =3D =3D
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