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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1781

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 29 22:55:33 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 292255
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292255=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-300130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1781
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0555 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

    Areas affected...Southwestern North Dakota and Western South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 292255Z - 300130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of supercells may be possible over the next few
    hours posing the risk of large hail and damaging winds. The
    convective evolution is highly uncertain and will be monitored for
    the potential of a severe-thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...Midlevel convection aided by warm-air advection has
    been percolating for a few hours in southwestern North Dakota.
    Recent intensification suggests that these storms may have started
    ingesting more unstable parcels originating near the surface.=20
    Despite modest instability (~1000 J/kg MLCAPE), there is sufficient
    deep-layer shear (given the strong veering winds with height) to
    support organized rotating updrafts. In fact, some CAM solutions
    have indicated the potential for a couple of long-tracked
    supercells, though this scenario still remains highly uncertain. If
    sustained storms are able to develop, they would pose the threat of
    large hail and damaging winds. The situation will continue to be
    monitored for the need of a severe-thunderstorm watch.

    ..Jirak/Grams.. 07/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9N2LxT9HLj6JSTj2EdaPGBtMnBAFGCPGIWW8PlCst-UF3b5F4RQtJaV6oiO-ilotR6ep2mkCb= ZoHyj3qSxRPRCtcAbs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 47240434 47480380 47450297 46070174 45540122 44910104
    44190107 43640143 43410240 43770339 44390395 45470428
    46040440 47240434=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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