ACUS11 KWNS 292131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292130=20
NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-292300-
Mesoscale Discussion 1777
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0430 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Areas affected...Portions of Middle and eastern Tennessee
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 292130Z - 292300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat will exist with storms
drifting south through Middle Tennessee.
DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along the surface front near the Tennessee/Kentucky border west of watch 570. These storms have
formed in a region with strong instability (2500 to 3000 J/kg
MLCAPE) and weak effective shear (~15 knots per OHX VWP). The weak
shear will likely limit overall organization with a more outflow
dominant line expected. However, given the hot, moist, and unstable
downstream environment, some stronger, water-loaded downdrafts are
possible with some threat for damaging wind gusts. A severe
thunderstorm watch is unlikely, unless the line of storms begins to
show better organization and a greater threat for damaging wind
gusts.
..Bentley/Grams.. 07/29/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-h8GcRneFxWEiRsyiNptOolX2Z-RF9c3EqMo6ash1uOH7preJTNLLpzr9DamNyuU4wgfBu0Lq= fb8DAZEoCNOn-yjdCY$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...
LAT...LON 36458701 36528682 36428613 36398582 36488552 36668500
36718463 36338370 35438363 35238483 35258631 35428687
35708758 36058739 36458701=20
=3D =3D =3D
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