ACUS11 KWNS 292048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292048=20
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-292245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1776
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming into the Colorado Front Range

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 292048Z - 292245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong/severe wind gusts will be the primary hazard with
storm clusters moving off of the terrain. Large hail could occur
with the strongest initial updrafts. A watch is possible later this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Modestly moist upslope flow into the terrain has
allowed convection from the Front Range into the Laramie mountains
to deepen over the last few hours. The moist layer is rather shallow
(per DDC/AMA soundings this morning) and dewpoints have consequently
mixed out into the upper 50s/low 60s F. Some capping remains on the
Plains to the east as a result. However, moisture is also slightly
higher than some guidance has suggested. With time and continued
heating (likely upper 80s to perhaps lower 90s F), a few deeper
updrafts will develop. Given the modest deep-layer shear (stronger
north, weaker south) and large temperature/dewpoint spreads at the
surface, outflow will be prevalent. Congealing cold pools will be
the likely mechanism to drive storms out onto the Plains. The
strongest storms would be capable of large hail initially, although strong/severe wind gusts are the primary hazard expected late this
afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible this afternoon,
but timing is uncertain as to when storms will move off of the
terrain.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8DpwPrwPNM_bvCwfF96V6bowEXcuI3sAfNsXJU7EOguxH2Uh0nk4DncYQzXmFf4Cu4yiXcxcK= W3bScmqkzOGxP7zGv4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 38550462 40280522 41370543 41920506 41960422 41160357
40030309 39100286 38380321 38220381 38550462=20


=3D =3D =3D
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