ACUS11 KWNS 291756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291756=20 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-291900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1772
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...northern Virginia/Maryland/eastern Pennsylvania
eastward to the coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 291756Z - 291900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Convective development expected along and ahead of an
advancing cold front, will likely require WW issuance given
potential for locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and
evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows diurnal heating
underway through scattered small cu cloud field along and east of
the Appalachians. This has allowed continued/gradual
destabilization, with mixed-layer CAPE now averaging 1000 to 1500
J/kg across most of the discussion area.

Large-scale/deep-layer ascent remains rather weak across the area,
and this will likely limit, to some degree, overall/eventual storm
coverage. Still, expect isolated to scattered convective
development to begin in the 19Z to 20Z time frame -- initially
across the PA area but then expanding southward into Virginia. As
this occurs, moderately strong deep-layer westerly flow will support
locally stronger storms, and accompanying risk for damaging wind
gusts. This potential seems sufficient to warrant eventual WW
issuance.

..Goss/Thompson.. 07/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4z_fmwfEYbSOOiJwhnKpvTvPvFCY1zDlM9rfJ-YT1vit6Ji5M2ydQqZGpsJQ2ttnBYTHruYwu= 1k92flOxf3K-HJeBZM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 38437905 40057735 41297668 41357439 41407201 41027164
40477311 40347378 39637406 38367548 37967868 38437905=20


=3D =3D =3D
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