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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1770

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 29 15:34:28 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 291534
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291533=20 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-291730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1770
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1033 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

    Areas affected...southern New England into parts of eastern New York
    and far northern New Jersey

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 291533Z - 291730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A steady increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected
    through the afternoon, with locally strong wind gusts becoming more
    likely as the airmass destabilizes. WW issuance will likely be
    needed.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows partly sunny
    conditions across southern New England and into parts of eastern New
    York and vicinity. Daytime heating through late morning has
    supported modest destabilization, which will continue into the
    afternoon given dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. As an MCV
    now crossing eastern Lake Erie continues to shift eastward, expect
    storm coverage to increase as afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values rise
    into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range.

    While low-level flow is forecast to remain weaker as compared to
    areas farther south, mid-level westerlies near 30 kt will support
    potential for organized storms and some upscale growth into
    small-scale bands. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts are expected
    with the strongest storms, through the afternoon hours, and this
    potential appears sufficient that WW issuance will likely be
    required in the next hour.

    ..Goss/Thompson.. 07/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9_zBiBeG-EOK3BhARmYjJvnuR93RGHAlhxYwpzd8EX9bAIvz3b-O650h18St823t6ccpAlxl8= 5ag9hj96bUaeqBUPLU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

    LAT...LON 42107635 42647656 43097549 43597453 43507321 43597302
    44207138 44187022 43717013 42717064 41526966 41196982
    40337407 41447482 41937547 42107635=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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