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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1768

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 29 11:10:27 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 291110
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291109=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-291315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1768
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0609 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

    Areas affected...South-central and Southeast Nebraska...Far
    Northeast Kansas...Northwest and Central Missouri...Far Southwest
    Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565...

    Valid 291109Z - 291315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated large hail threat will likely
    develop east-southeastward across southeast Nebraska into northwest
    and central Missouri later this morning. Weather watch issuance to
    the east of WW 565 will likely need to be considered.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Hastings,
    Nebraska shows a well-developed bowing line segment in south-central
    Nebraska. This feature is associated with an MCS, that is forecast
    to track east-southeastward across southeast Nebraska into northwest
    and central Missouri later this morning. The latest WSR-88D VWP at
    Hastings has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. Forecast soundings for the
    same site have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, with MLCAPE near
    3000 J/kg. This environment, along with a rear inflow jet evident on
    the Hastings radar, will continue to support a wind-damage and
    isolated large hail threat with the more intense parts of the line
    segment. This buoyant environment appears to extend
    east-southeastward into northwest Missouri. At this time, there
    appears to be a good chance that the line will remain organized as
    it approaches the eastern edge of WW 565. If this occurs, new
    weather watch will likely be needed to the southeast of the current
    watch.

    ..Broyles.. 07/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_JMF99JCHbML_ZWPkYBaobwgLGVNAb7iuoIB2_QJNaH2vgXmUmCDaRSbM0qvJ_AxakuWqHnpB= SZW2_t8wZksvERl9aE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 38909316 38819369 38919438 39209562 39669725 40169904
    40499928 40919926 41359902 41659870 41809853 41919837
    41999794 41999755 41909670 41449446 41069351 40299283
    39319268 38909316=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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