ACUS11 KWNS 291006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291006=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-291200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1767
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Ohio...Western and Central
Pennsylvania and Northern West Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 564...

Valid 291006Z - 291200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 564
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and hail threat will likely continue for
several more hours, as a convective line moves eastward across
eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia and into western Pennsylvania.
Weather watch issuance may need to be considered further east, if
the line can remain organized as it moves through the eastern part
of WW 564.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Pittsburgh shows
an MCS from northeast Ohio extending southwestward into
south-central Ohio. This convection is located along the eastern
edge of moderate instability, according to the RAP. The axis of
instability extends eastward into western Pennsylvania where MLCAPE
is generally in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. This, combined with
large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough on water-vapor
imagery, will continue to be favorable for convective development.
Despite the relatively weak instability further to the east,
moderate deep-layer shear is evident on the Pittsburgh WSR-88D VWP.
In addition, lift is being enhanced by the presence of a low to
mid-level jet in the wake of the MCS. These factors will make wind
damage a possibility with short bowing line segments over the next
few hours. The threat is expected to impact western Pennsylvania
later this morning, and could affect central Pennsylvania as well.

..Broyles.. 07/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_lu5u3qaxeM4t6GLKWcj-zbiEvs31CngeVF95qiSCoifnktaQtmQ5nQm2FpyC50iOrf0jikQC= Rfvd0T2kcYKcVEYme0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 40428290 39858335 39558357 39208342 38978267 38948128
38897951 39487856 40157797 40767770 41307808 41597909
41648118 41148231 40428290=20


=3D =3D =3D
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