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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1765

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 29 05:58:24 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 290558
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290557=20
    OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-290800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1765
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

    Areas affected...Indiana...Ohio...Southern Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563...

    Valid 290557Z - 290800Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A wind-damage and hail threat will continue for several
    more hours across northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan. The
    threat is also expected to impact northwestern Ohio within an hour
    or so. If convective trends suggest that the severe threat will
    continue into central Ohio, a new watch will need to be considered
    to the southeast of the current watch.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Indianapolis
    shows a large-scale bowing line segment from northwest Indiana
    extending southwestward into eastern Illinois. The line is moving east-southeastward at near 40 knots, along the northern edge of a
    pocket of moderate instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the
    2000 to 2500 J/kg range within this pocket. The instability,
    combined with large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough,
    evident on water vapor imagery, will be favorable for continued
    severe storm development over the next few hours. Wind damage will
    be the primary threat, although hail will also be possible with the
    stronger cores. The greatest wind-damage threat is expected from
    northeast Indiana into west-central Ohio. A hail threat will also
    exist along a wing of warm advection associated with convection in
    southeast lower Michigan.

    ..Broyles.. 07/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_wtD9igNl9nkAZy05QMuMGlLjQN4x7OKL-4BiAC-i7CanWNBRu3VY6fBskh5l-wYg35-beH8s= mI02x0d_iTude3tnbM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...
    LOT...

    LAT...LON 42668494 42778575 42688638 42048656 41478692 40898740
    40418713 39958632 39428436 39078289 39128217 39418160
    39888137 40168139 40788176 41648284 42668494=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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