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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1764

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 29 02:44:52 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 290244
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290244=20
    MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-290445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1764
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0944 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

    Areas affected...parts of southern Wisconsin into southwest Lower
    Michigan

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561...

    Valid 290244Z - 290445Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561
    continues.

    SUMMARY...As numerous areas of storms evolve across the region,
    trends will be monitored for additional strengthening which may
    necessitate the need for another watch downstream into parts of
    western Lower Michigan.

    DISCUSSION...A severe MCS is moving out of IA into northwest IL,
    intersection a zone of storms associated with lake breeze and
    otherwise warm advection convection across far northern IL and into
    IN. To the north, an organized line of storms continues eastward
    across southern WI, and has picked up speed, aided by 40-50 kt
    midlevel wind speeds.

    The combination of numerous storms in the warm advection zone may
    decrease severe potential for areas to the north to a degree, as
    return flow of higher theta-e air will be limited. However, the
    organized nature of the existing line of storms moving across
    southern WI, as well as gradual height falls on the large scale, may
    combine with sufficient instability (even if effectively elevated)
    to sustain the existing MCS, with damaging gusts possible.

    If the southern WI MCS weakens as it approaches the lake shore, a
    watch may not be needed into Lower MI. As such, trends will continue
    to be monitored for changes in intensity.

    ..Jewell/Grams.. 07/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9lEim8AHIBOKV_8mh8bTQ-9qo_F-zHlsUxBT9QiyE697Xf7Kns2uml7VtTVSyyOJYaQsPY79P= E8qDl1GDrmFBV7B5os$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

    LAT...LON 43189011 43388961 43638919 43728896 43628816 43398714
    43158625 42888550 42488524 41958538 41788570 41758658
    42018711 42278764 42458833 42508876 42618955 42759001
    42939019 43189011=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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