ACUS11 KWNS 282338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282337=20
AZZ000-290100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1759
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 282337Z - 290100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms capable of severe wind gusts are possible. No
watch is anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Weak upslope flow and terrain driven circulations have
led to thunderstorm development along the higher terrain in
southeastern Arizona. Very large dewpoint depressions (50F) in the
region and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support sub-cloud
evaporative cooling and downdraft acceleration. Severe wind gusts
are possible with this storm activity as it drifts west this
evening, and especially if storms can develop organized outflow.
However, SPC mesoanalysis shows significant convective inhibition
across south-central Arizona, so storm longevity may be somewhat
limited once storms move off the higher terrain. Therefore, no
severe thunderstorm watch is anticipated.

..Bentley/Grams.. 07/28/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_fAkJZ-d6_yca78RwMih3BZLOYwF7zLfuU4dCVwns54apm2voxZwpTBCmnnIUazWxuVlidjyk= iDuCa78zM9nUfPSc2c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON 33511117 33211035 31841006 31331056 31341107 32721201
33511117=20


=3D =3D =3D
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